south african elections

i live in south africa now, hence the name of this blog.

next year, the anc are headed to another constitution-proof victory, providing that they avoid implosion in the western cape and kwazulu-natal.

i live in the western cape, which at the moment is only "run" by the anc, as they have a parliamentary majority in the province by virtue of having absorbed the new national party. [that would be the successor party to the national party, ie the party of apartheid]

more specifically, i live in cape town, which is currently run by the same coalition [read: everybody but the anc] that will probably take over the province in next year's elections.

the anc have never won a majority in the western cape at the ballot box, and it's unlikely that they will do so next year. south africa has descended from "rainbow nation" into "race-based politics" and the anc within the province has splintered into two factions. the "black" faction, and the "everyone [read: coloured]" faction. the latter has just lost a rather acrimonious power struggle in the province, leading to the dismissal of the premier.

it's interesting, this -- the replacement premier is not the head of the anc in the province, but the former finance minister. i say this is interesting, because there is a very real probability that the head of the nationwide anc may end up in court and imprisoned before the elections. of course, he's using procedural delays to drag it out and then do a chirac, but one of the things his supporters have been saying is that since he is the head of the anc, he should be president of the republic.

um, if they can't do it in the western cape, why should they do it for the nation? that's all i want to know.

this is the second outline, i guess, of the elections that i'm "following"; the first is of the u.s. elections.

i'll also be talking about a lot of other stuff as time goes on.